A theory that 21st century wars will be fought by strangling economies and turning people against their own governments, with Iran as the first test case — bad news for civilians everywhere.

• The US-Iran ceasefire is expected to break, and America will shift from bombing military targets to a slower strategy of economic strangulation.
• This means cutting off oil exports, hitting dams, power plants, roads, and food supply lines to make Iranians angry enough to overthrow their own government.
• America will also stir up ethnic minorities in Iran's borders and fund protest movements, the same playbook used in the Arab Spring and recently in Nepal.
• Because America controls the world's shipping choke points and is rich in food and energy, it can squeeze rival economies like Iran and China without firing many shots.
• The only known counter is religious fanaticism — convincing young people to die as martyrs, the way Iran held off Iraq in the 1980s.

Outlook: Expect a long, grinding conflict with Iran built around blockades and infrastructure attacks, and a rise in religious extremism worldwide as the response.