Game Theory #23: The WWIII Chessboard
A speculative framework predicting that the next 5–10 years will be defined by a four-way conflict between the US, Russia, Iran, and Israel, driven by clashing worldviews and internal politics — bad news for global stability.
- The four powers are already fighting through proxies in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Cuba, and the fights will spread, not settle.
- Each country has its own deep cultural script that locks in its strategy: the US wants a North American fortress run by AI, Russia wants to unite religious traditions against the West, Iran is willing to fight to the death for Shia leadership, and Israel is pushing for a "Greater Israel" from the Nile to the Euphrates.
- China and India are sidelined — they have big economies but no real plan to project power, so they will drift back into being inward-looking.
- The real driver is internal civil war inside each country: a coalition of nationalists, religious people, and tech billionaires is rising up against the globalist rich (Wall Street, City of London).
- Expect Germany and Japan to rearm as US proxies, and smaller players like Poland, Turkey, and North Korea to grab power in the chaos.
Outlook: More war fronts open over the next few years, including likely fighting at sea over Russian oil tankers, with no peace deal possible because the four sides see reality itself differently.