This is bad news for Taiwan: China's window to invade may be closing, and 2026 could be the moment Beijing decides to strike.

• Trump is meeting Xi in Beijing and may treat Taiwan as a bargaining chip in trade talks, which would tell Xi how much room he has to act.
• Taiwan's parliament just cut President Lai's defense budget in half, killing the homegrown Strong Bow missile defense system Taiwan badly needs.
• Taiwan's main opposition party, the KMT, is openly cozying up to Beijing and could win the next election in 2028.
• Japan is about to remilitarize and other Indo-Pacific countries are forming a ring around China, so waiting makes an invasion much harder.
• The world is distracted by Ukraine, Iran, and other crises, giving China cover to build up forces and face weaker pushback.
• An invasion would be decided in hours, and even a brief Trump hesitation could let China close the strait before US allies can react.

Outlook: China's strategic position only gets worse from here, so Beijing may decide that if it wants Taiwan by force, the time is now.