A retired US colonel warns the Ukraine war is sliding toward a much wider and more dangerous phase, with Russia openly debating strikes on Europe — bad news for NATO and global stability.

• The 3-day Victory Day ceasefire collapsed immediately, with Russia firing 800 drones and missiles into Ukraine hours after it ended.
• Russian commentators and military voices are pressuring Putin to stop nibbling at the front line and instead hit European cities and military bases that arm Ukraine.
• Some Russians are even talking openly about using tactical nuclear weapons if Europe does not back off — once a fringe idea, now mainstream in Moscow.
• The US and Europe have drained their weapons stockpiles arming Ukraine and cannot quickly replace them, while Russia has stockpiled missiles, drones, and shells during the war.
• European leaders keep threatening Russia, moving German troops to the Baltics and pushing big defense buildups aimed at being ready to fight Russia by 2029-2030, which Moscow takes as confirmation it is already at war with the West.

Outlook: If Russia strikes a European target, it would trigger NATO's Article 5 at a moment when Western arsenals are at their weakest in decades.