A retired colonel argues the US-Iran war was a strategic disaster and that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating dangerously, both bad news for US military readiness.

• Iran kept most of its missiles and launchers underground, so 40 days of US strikes barely dented its arsenal, and 30 of 33 missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz are back in action.
• The US burned through 30 to 45% of its key missile stockpiles, including THAAD interceptors and Tomahawks, leaving it weaker for any future war with China, Russia, or Iran again.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and there is no military way to reopen it, despite Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claiming otherwise in Senate testimony.
• Russia is angry that Putin has not pushed harder in Ukraine, and Russian voices are now openly calling for missile strikes on European cities and even tactical nuclear weapons.
• Europe is rearming and talking about war with Russia by 2029-2030, while US arsenals are depleted from arming Ukraine, putting NATO in a weak spot if Russia escalates.

Outlook: The US is likely to quietly exit the Iran war by claiming victory, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict risks spilling into a wider European war.