Record outside money is pouring into a Kentucky Republican primary to unseat Congressman Thomas Massie, in what is shaping up as a major test of pro-Israel lobbying influence and a bad sign for dissident voices in Congress.

• More money has been spent against Massie than any congressional race in history, with around $30 million flowing in, much of it from AIPAC and billionaire donors like Paul Singer.
• Opponent Ed Gallrein refuses to debate Massie and is taking heat at town halls, while attack ads, including AI-generated ones, flood the district.
• Massie says he has been blacklisted from Fox News for 18 months after voting against Speaker Mike Johnson, and claims cabinet officials may campaign against him.
• Massie introduced a bill to force AIPAC to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which currently exempts the group.
• Betting markets like Polymarket showed his odds dropping sharply, which Massie blames on large bets meant to shape the narrative rather than reflect real sentiment.

Outlook: The primary is May 19 and will hinge on turnout, especially among younger voters Massie wins online; a loss would signal that even entrenched incumbents can be removed by concentrated lobby spending.