The US has no good military option to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the war with Iran is going badly — bad news for the Trump administration, US troops, and global oil markets.

• A US attempt to break Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, called Project Freedom, failed within 36 hours after taking hits and turning back.
• Military analysts like Douglas McGregor and Daniel Davis say there is no military option — US soldiers would be slaughtered if sent in.
• Decades of economic pressure on Iran have not forced it to give in, so betting on sanctions to reopen the strait is a long shot.
• US intelligence reportedly thinks Iran can hold out for years.
• Officials are still selling the war as winnable even though the early military move already failed.

Outlook: The strait stays closed or contested, oil supply risk stays high, and pressure grows on the White House to find a way out of the war.