Trump looked unusually cautious during his China visit, a sign that Washington needs Beijing's economy more than it admits, which is bad for US leverage and good for China.

• Trump stuck to the script and even drank alcohol as a sign of respect, showing US corporations now depend on Chinese demand to survive.
• The US tax bill cuts $190 billion in food stamps over a decade, squeezing Walmart, Kraft Heinz, Pepsi, and lower-income shoppers already hit by high oil, food, and housing costs.
• US allies like ASML are resisting new chip rules that would block even servicing existing machines in China, since China is half of global chip demand and there is no replacement market.
• China reportedly built a working prototype of its own advanced chip machine in 2025, making the bet that China stays behind look risky.
• Iran is giving Chinese tankers free passage through the strait, saving millions per ship and rewarding Beijing for staying close.
• Russia's Lavrov warns the US wants to rebuild Nord Stream and control European gas flows and pricing, leaving Russia as the producer but Washington in charge.

Outlook: Allies will keep quietly pushing back on US demands as the dollar system weakens and China's leverage grows.