The US is preparing to indict 94-year-old Raul Castro over a 1996 plane shootdown, part of a wider push to topple Cuba's regime — bad for the Castro family and the communist government, potentially good for Cubans suffering through blackouts and shortages.

• The CIA director flew to Havana this week to deliver a message from Trump, days before news of the potential indictment leaked.
• The charges tie to Cuba shooting down two civilian planes from a humanitarian exile group 30 years ago.
• Cuba is collapsing — 20-hour daily blackouts, fuel shortages, and water pumps failing because there is no power to run them.
• Cuba lost its oil lifeline when the US moved against Venezuela's Maduro, leaving the island with almost nothing.
• Cubans are banging pots in the streets demanding electricity, mirroring the celebrations in Miami when Fidel died.

Outlook: The US looks set to keep squeezing Cuba on multiple fronts — energy, legal pressure, public opinion — likely pushing toward regime change in the coming months.