Trump claims total military victory over Iran, but US intelligence shows Iran has rebuilt most of its missile capacity — bad news because it raises the risk he restarts the war based on false beliefs.

• Trump told a New York Times reporter the US "knocked out everything" in Iran and called the reporting treasonous.
• US intelligence actually shows Iran has restored access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil shipping lane.
• Iran still has most of its mobile launchers and most of its pre-war missile stockpile, including ballistic and cruise missiles.
• Iran has also regained access to most of its underground missile storage and launch sites, now partially or fully operational.
• The danger is Trump believing his own claims and restarting a war the US is not actually winning.

Outlook: Risk of renewed US strikes on Iran is rising as Trump publicly contradicts his own intelligence.