America's problems just converged

May 17, 2026

US economy is heading for stagflation, which is bad news for workers, savers, and anyone holding dollars.

  • Top forecasters now expect inflation to hit 6% next quarter, up from 2.7%, while growth slows to around 2%.
  • Japan is starting to dump US bonds to buy Japanese ones instead, which pushes US borrowing costs higher.
  • Trump went to China to take photos with Xi but got no real concessions, just a promise to set up trade talks.
  • The US agreed to sell planes, engines, and parts to China, which helps China catch up to US aircraft makers over time.
  • The Iran war is driving up gas prices and military spending, with Trump asking for $1.5 trillion more for defense.
  • AI bosses are pushing AI at college graduations and getting booed, as young people see fewer jobs and rising costs.

Outlook: The Fed is stuck between cutting rates and feeding inflation or raising rates and crushing growth, so expect more pain either way.

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