America's problems just converged
US economy is heading for stagflation, which is bad news for workers, savers, and anyone holding dollars.
- Top forecasters now expect inflation to hit 6% next quarter, up from 2.7%, while growth slows to around 2%.
- Japan is starting to dump US bonds to buy Japanese ones instead, which pushes US borrowing costs higher.
- Trump went to China to take photos with Xi but got no real concessions, just a promise to set up trade talks.
- The US agreed to sell planes, engines, and parts to China, which helps China catch up to US aircraft makers over time.
- The Iran war is driving up gas prices and military spending, with Trump asking for $1.5 trillion more for defense.
- AI bosses are pushing AI at college graduations and getting booed, as young people see fewer jobs and rising costs.
Outlook: The Fed is stuck between cutting rates and feeding inflation or raising rates and crushing growth, so expect more pain either way.