A new media narrative says Cuba is preparing drone attacks on the US, which looks like a setup to justify an American invasion — bad for Cuba, and a warning sign for anyone watching US war buildup.

• Axios cited anonymous US officials claiming Cuba bought 300 drones from Russia and Iran and discussed hitting Guantanamo and Key West.
• The same report admits US officials do not actually believe Cuba plans to attack, but that detail is buried.
• Cuba is warning of a false flag, comparing the moment to the 1962 Operation Northwoods plan to fake attacks and blame Havana.
• Marco Rubio, now Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, has a personal drive to topple the Cuban government, and wealthy Cuban-American donors who backed Trump want regime change.
• An invasion would likely look more like the Venezuela operation than a bloodbath, since Cuba is weakened by sanctions and rolling blackouts and China and Russia will not fight the US over it.

Outlook: An attack is unlikely in the next few weeks while US forces are tied up against Iran, but Cuba is next in line once that conflict winds down.