Iran expects the US to attack again within days, and the return to war looks close to inevitable — bad news for oil markets, drivers, and anyone hoping the standoff would quietly fade.

• Trump is threatening Iran again, and Iran's contacts believe fighting restarts within 48 hours.
• The ceasefire has outlasted the war itself but settled nothing — the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and oil is barely trickling out.
• Gas prices are painful, near $4.50 a gallon nationally and over $6 in California, hitting lower-income Americans hardest right as summer travel begins.
• US demands are harsher than before the war — ship out enriched uranium, keep only one nuclear site, no sanctions relief — while Iran wants all sanctions lifted and recognition of its control over Hormuz, so a deal looks impossible.
• The region is a mess: a drone hit near a UAE nuclear plant, Saudi Arabia and the UAE trade blame, the Houthis keep downing US Reaper drones, and Qatar's gas economy is taking heavy damage.

Outlook: With both sides dug in and neocons and Netanyahu pushing another strike, a fresh bombing campaign or even a ground invasion looks likely soon.