Tonight's Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th District is being framed as a test of whether Israel lobby money can unseat a critic, with bad implications for any politician who opposes Israel.

• Thomas Massie has opposed extra funding and wars for Israel, drawing pro-Israel groups to spend $16 million to defeat him.
• Total spending in the race is approaching $35 million, making it the most expensive House race ever.
• The challenger, Ed Gallrein, is backed by pro-Israel donors who want a reliable vote in Congress.
• A Gallrein win would signal to both parties that opposing Israel ends political careers.
• Mainstream coverage is downplaying the Israel angle, framing the spending as unrelated to foreign policy.

Outlook: If Gallrein wins, expect fewer members of Congress willing to publicly break with Israel; if Massie survives, the lobby's leverage takes a visible hit.