Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie faces a primary tomorrow where pro-Israel groups have spent record money to unseat him, a test of how much influence the Israel lobby has over US elections.

• Over $20 million in outside money, much from AIPAC and the Republican Jewish Coalition, has poured in to defeat Massie and elect challenger Ed Gallrein.
• Massie angered Trump by pushing to release the Epstein files and refusing to back funding for Israel's wars.
• JD Vance publicly turned on Massie while privately calling him a friend, trying to please both Trump and younger conservatives who side with Massie.
• Gallrein has pledged unconditional support for Israel and wants to speed up bringing back the military draft.
• The race is seen as a signal: if Israel-backed money can beat a deeply conservative Kentucky incumbent, it can beat anyone in Congress.

Outlook: Tomorrow's vote will show whether the Israel lobby can unseat a sitting Republican who crossed it, with major consequences for future US support of Israeli wars.