Trump postponed a planned attack on Iran, but the underlying war risk has not gone away — bad news for oil markets and anyone hoping for a clean exit.

• Trump said Qatar asked him to hold off on attacking Iran, but Gulf allies told the Wall Street Journal they have no idea what he is talking about.
• The real reason looks different — the US military warned Trump that Iran has rebuilt missile sites, studied US flight patterns, and can now shoot down more American jets.
• Five weeks of bombing killed older Iranian commanders but left a younger, harder-line leadership that wants to keep fighting, not deal.
• The US is quietly letting some sanctioned Russian oil reach market to keep gas prices down, which means the war is bailing out Russia and hurting the US more than Iran.
• US gas is at $4.53 a gallon, oil is up 80% since the war began, and the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed.

Outlook: Another attack could come within days since neither side is close to a deal and Trump does not want to look like he lost.