The Trump administration is reportedly setting up Cuba as the next target for military action, which would be bad for Cubans already suffering under US sanctions and bad for anyone who voted Trump expecting less war.

• Axios published a leaked intelligence report claiming Cuba has 300 attack drones aimed at Guantanamo and Key West, which Cuba denies and which looks like a manufactured pretext for war.
• The report also drags Iran into the story by claiming Iranian military advisers are in Havana, likely to rally support for a strike.
• Trump has already hit at least seven countries and killed over 200 people in Caribbean boat strikes, despite running as an anti-war candidate.
• US sanctions have left Cuba with blackouts, no fuel, garbage piling up, and hospital staff hand-pumping ventilators to keep babies alive.
• One theory: China may have quietly green-lit US adventurism in Iran and Cuba because it ties down the US military and weakens any future defense of Taiwan.

Outlook: A strike on Cuba is not certain, but the propaganda groundwork is being laid, and more boat strikes and pressure on Havana are likely in the coming weeks.