The Kentucky primary became a proxy fight between pro-Israel donors and Thomas Massie, with Trump backing the challenger and fumbling his attack — bad news for AIPAC's grip on Congress if Massie wins.

• Pro-Israel groups including AIPAC poured over $15 million into Ed Gallin's campaign to unseat Massie, who refuses all foreign-tied donations.
• Massie was targeted for voting against aid to Israel, demanding the Epstein files, and opposing foreign wars under both Biden and Trump.
• Trump endorsed Gallin but listed Massie's actual conservative votes (against trans policies, against open borders) as reasons he is "terrible," effectively praising him.
• Betting markets like Polymarket swung sharply against Massie after large bets, suggesting possible manipulation rather than real polling shifts.
• A Massie loss would show AIPAC can buy any seat; a win would be the first major crack in its near-perfect record and could reshape the right.

Outlook: the race is extremely close with polls closing within hours, and the result will signal whether US politicians can vote against Israel aid and keep their jobs.