Cuba has run out of fuel and the US is openly maneuvering to topple the regime, bad news for the Castro government and potentially catastrophic for ordinary Cubans.

• Cuba officially ran out of fuel reserves on May 13, after months of brutal rationing left people with 3-4 hours of electricity a day and hospitals running ventilators by hand.
• Oil from Venezuela stopped when the US captured Maduro in January, and Mexico backed off shipments under US pressure.
• The CIA director flew into Havana to push a deal: $100 million in aid and sanctions relief if the regime accepts a structural overhaul, with Raul Castro's grandson Ralito as Washington's preferred insider.
• The US Justice Department just indicted 94-year-old Raul Castro for the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes, and the White House posted his face on a "neutralized" chart next to Maduro.
• Protests broke out across 12 municipalities, the biggest unrest since 2021, and the regime is calling up militias and reportedly stockpiling 300 Russian and Iranian drones.

Outlook: A negotiated handover through the Castro family is the most likely path, since a sudden collapse would send a migrant wave to Florida that Washington wants to avoid.