Putin's Beijing visit shows Russia and China are friendly but not real allies, which is bad news for Putin's plan to break the US-led world order.

• Putin and Xi agreed on a "multipolar world" but want different things — Putin wants Russia and China to lead it, Xi just wants to protect the current UN-based system.
• The economic relationship favors China heavily — Russia mostly sells raw energy, China sells back manufactured goods, and Chinese investors mostly avoid Russia because they fear Western sanctions.
• Chinese elites get rich by converting their power into US dollars and sending kids to America, so they have no real interest in breaking from the US system.
• Putin's strategy is to destroy global demand for the US dollar by stirring up trouble — backing North Korea to threaten South Korea, dragging out the Ukraine war to push Germany toward civil unrest, and courting Africa, India and Iran.
• America is trapped — it needs foreign countries to keep buying US treasuries or its debt math breaks, which is why it is fighting in Iran to control energy and force dollar demand.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on the dollar system, rising tensions in Korea and Europe, and a Russia-China friendship that looks strong now but will eventually split.