A possible US-Iran peace deal is being floated, but the terms look stacked against Iran, and a bigger oil and inflation shock is brewing that would hit American consumers hard.

• Trump and Netanyahu had a heated call: Netanyahu pushed for more bombing of Iran, Trump pulled back and said he wants a deal.
• The floated peace framework looks like a US wish list, and Iran has leverage to drag talks out because the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since March, blocking 13 million barrels of oil a day.
• The US is burning through its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to hide the shortage, with maybe 60 days until tank bottoms.
• If the US strikes Iran again, Iran has threatened to hit Saudi and Gulf oil infrastructure, which could pull 25 million barrels a day off the market and trigger a depression-level shock.
• Thomas Massie lost his Kentucky primary after AIPAC and pro-Israel groups spent record money against him, signaling how much foreign-linked money is shaping US races.
• A New York Times report says Israel and the US considered installing former Iranian president Ahmadinejad to replace the regime, a plan dismissed as a sales pitch to keep the war going.

Outlook: Expect another inflation surge and high gas prices in the coming months, and a rough midterm for Republicans if oil and food prices keep climbing.