Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered that all enriched uranium must stay inside Iran, blowing up Trump's main demand and making a new war more likely.

• Iran will not ship its uranium to Russia, China, or anywhere else, even though down-blending under inspection was on the table before.
• Trump boxed himself in by repeatedly saying he must take all the "nuclear dust," leaving no room to accept a smaller deal.
• Qatar and Pakistan were brokering a 30-day ceasefire with partial sanctions relief, but Iran's new directive likely kills it.
• 30-year US government bond yields hit 5.19%, the highest since the 2008 crash, which pushes mortgage and credit card rates higher for everyone.
• Wall Street now expects oil to stay above $100 a barrel for at least a year, keeping gas near $4.50 and feeding inflation.
• US intelligence says Iran is already rebuilding its military and producing new drones faster than expected.

Outlook: If Trump restarts strikes, expect it over a weekend before markets open, with oil and bond yields jumping again.