The Strait of Hormuz could stay closed through July 4th and even Labor Day, which is bad news for oil markets and global shipping.

• The waterway that carries a big share of the world's oil is likely to stay shut much longer than markets expect.
• Iran has more missile power left than the US claimed, and US strikes hit fewer of those missiles than reported.
• Russia is helping Iran with targeting, partly in payback for US support of Ukraine.
• Iran is also getting resupplied, so its ability to keep the strait closed is not running out.
• Investors should stress test their portfolios for a long shutdown, not a quick one.

Outlook: The conflict and the Hormuz closure look set to drag through the summer, keeping oil supply risk high.