A massive oil supply crunch is building as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and this is very bad for the US economy, consumers, and global markets.

• The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since March, choking off 13 million barrels a day of oil and oil products from world markets.
• The US is draining its Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing stockpiles at a rapid pace and could hit tank bottoms in about 60 days.
• Trump's tweets about a peace deal keep pushing oil prices down, but Iran has not given up its demands and is running out the clock.
• Inflation is rising again, with producer prices already at 6% and a single recent month annualizing closer to 16%, echoing the 1970s double-hump inflation.
• If the US attacks Iran again, Iran has threatened to take out Saudi and Omani pipelines and close the Red Sea, which would cut 25 million barrels a day and trigger something worse than the Great Depression.

Outlook: Without a real negotiated deal, the US faces either a humiliating climbdown or a massive energy shock and deep recession within months.