The US is ramping up pressure on Cuba with an indictment of 94-year-old Raul Castro and an aircraft carrier now in the Caribbean, signaling possible military action and bad news for the Cuban government.

• The Justice Department charged Raul Castro over a 1996 shootdown of US civilian planes flown by Cuban exiles, 30 years after the fact.
• The Nimitz aircraft carrier just entered the Caribbean, the same pattern seen before US strikes on Venezuela and Iran.
• The move looks aimed at winning back Cuban-American voters in Florida, where Trump's Latino support has collapsed over harsh deportation policies.
• Rubio gave a Spanish-language speech urging Cubans to overthrow their government, while the US blocks Russia and Mexico from sending oil that would fix the island's blackouts.
• A $100 million "humanitarian aid" offer to Cuba is actually Starlink internet terminals, likely meant to spark an uprising, while a Canadian mining company reversed plans to leave Cuba after agreeing to give a Trump ally a stake.

Outlook: Military action against Cuba looks increasingly likely, though Trump may settle for a deal that enriches his allies if the Miami lobby allows it.