Trump's war with Iran is going badly, and the public knows it, even as he insists otherwise.

• A new poll shows 64% of Americans think the war on Iran was a mistake, but Trump claims it is actually popular.
• The real reason Trump called off this week's strikes: Iran has rebuilt missile sites and, possibly with Russian help, learned to predict US flight patterns after downing an F-15 and hitting an F-35.
• The Strait of Hormuz stays closed, choking off 20% of the world's oil and gas and dragging on the global economy.
• Netanyahu is pressing Trump in long phone calls to restart bombing, while Trump now wants a deal because he knows Iran has the upper hand.
• US weapons stockpiles are drained from arming Israel and Ukraine, and military experts say bombing Iran would not reopen the strait or topple the regime.

Outlook: Trump is threatening fresh strikes within days, but with no military path to victory, the quagmire and the hit to oil markets will likely drag on.