The US economy is in a rough spot as Kevin Warsh is sworn in as the new Fed chair, and this is bad news for struggling Americans facing high prices and a Fed with no easy fix.

• Warsh takes over the Fed with Trump publicly telling him to stay independent, a big softening from Trump's constant attacks on Jerome Powell.
• The economy is weak, with worries about inflation, unemployment, and slow growth all at once.
• Markets are betting the Fed actually raises rates, which would likely anger Trump.
• High gas prices are squeezing people so hard they are cutting back on food and bills, and companies are seeing it.
• Middle East tension keeps oil prices up, and even a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would take months or longer to bring prices down.

Outlook: Expect more strain on households and a possible clash between Trump and the Fed if rates go up instead of down.