The Trump administration indicted former Cuban leader Raul Castro, and there is growing talk that Cuba could be next for US-backed regime change.

• Acting Attorney General Todd Blanch tied the indictment to Castro's role in the 1996 shootdown of unarmed humanitarian planes that killed four Americans.
• Cuba is falling apart inside — many areas have had no running water or electricity for weeks, with people carrying water jugs from relief stations.
• Trump said "Cuba is on our mind," and the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier is parked in the Caribbean as a clear message.
• The likely playbook looks like Venezuela: squeeze the regime, push for a leadership swap, then send fuel and aid.
• Old photos of Obama at baseball games with Raul Castro resurfaced, fueling criticism that past US engagement ignored Castro's history.

Outlook: Cuba looks closer to regime change than Iran, and Trump's pressure campaign appears to be escalating fast.