Trump says a peace deal with Iran is largely done and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, which is bullish for stocks and bad for oil prices.

• Trump announced a memorandum of understanding with Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and Israel, though final details are still being worked out.
• Oil prices are expected to drop sharply, likely to $80–$85 Brent, since the Hormuz shipping route would reopen.
• Falling oil should pull bond yields down from the danger zone, killing fears of a Fed rate hike this year.
• Interest rate sensitive stocks like housing, autos, and mortgage companies should rally hard after being beaten down.
• The deal does not stop Iran from eventually getting a nuclear weapon, so the US arguably came out weaker while Iran keeps its enriched uranium and may still collect tolls on Hormuz with Qatar or Oman.
• A suspicious one-week call option placed Tuesday stands to make $129 million if oil falls to $90 by May 26, hinting someone knew the deal was coming.

Outlook: Stocks likely gap up Tuesday with a broad rally led by rate-sensitive names, though loose ends on Hormuz tolls and uranium could resurface later.