US inflation looks stuck and the Fed may raise rates instead of cutting, which is bad for borrowers, shoppers, and Trump's push for lower rates.

• Fed officials said they may hike rates if inflation stays high, and most signs say it will.
• The Iran conflict pushed gas prices to nearly four-year highs heading into Memorial Day weekend.
• Grocery prices keep climbing: tomatoes up 40%, coffee up 18%, beef up 14-16%, gas up 28% from last year.
• Shoppers in rural Michigan describe sticker shock and people putting items back at the register because they can't afford them.
• One argument floated to justify rate cuts is that AI will lower prices by boosting productivity, but that mostly works by replacing workers.

Outlook: The Fed is more likely to hold or hike than cut, and food and gas prices look set to stay high.