Trump says an Iran deal is close, but Iran appears to hold the leverage while the US deals with its own daily violence — bad news for Trump's victory narrative and for anyone hoping the strikes accomplished anything.

• Trump claims a ceasefire deal with Iran is in final stages, but Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are urging him not to restart bombing.
• Iran looks to be in the driver's seat as other Middle East countries send representatives to negotiate, with talks happening in Toronto rather than the US.
• A gunman opened fire near the White House and was killed by Secret Service, with a bystander also struck — the kind of shooting that happens daily in the US.
• Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz are pushing back against any deal that lets Iran survive intact, while Iran tells US officials to ignore Trump's tweets as promotional noise.
• The US has spent roughly a billion or two per day on this fight with nothing to show for it, and any deal that ignores Israeli settler expansion will not bring real peace.

Outlook: It is a coin flip between a face-saving deal and a return to bombing, and if this drags into July the economic damage gets much worse.