Trump announced a near-final peace deal with Iran, ending the war in a major setback for Israel and Washington hawks.

• A memorandum of understanding would halt fighting, including in Lebanon, release frozen Iranian assets, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian and Omani oversight.
• The deal returns the situation to where the first ceasefire should have been, before a US naval blockade attempt failed and weakened the American position.
• Iran kept control of the strait and forced the US to back down after a botched US operation near Isfahan that cost more aircraft than any time since Vietnam.
• Trump's trip to China was the final turning point — Beijing refused to pressure Iran and instead struck its own deal letting Chinese ships pass freely.
• Israel is the big loser: two wars failed to break Iran, and Israeli sabotage attempts over the next 30 days are the main risk, with heavy bombing in Gaza already seen as a possible trigger.

Outlook: A 30-day window opens for hawks in Washington and Israel to sabotage the deal before a final nuclear and Hormuz agreement is locked in.