A possible US-Iran truce could reopen a key oil shipping route, which would be good news for global energy markets but the deal is still shaky.

• Trump says a deal is mostly done and could be announced soon, with reopening the Strait of Hormuz as a central piece.
• Under the proposed deal, Iran would resume oil tanker flows, fighting would pause, and about $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets could be released.
• The Strait of Hormuz handles a huge share of the world's oil, so any disruption sends gas, food, and shipping costs higher worldwide.
• The big sticking point is Iran's nuclear program — Iran does not want to stop enriching uranium, and Iranian state media is already pushing back on US claims that a deal is close.
• Central banks like the ECB are watching closely because a prolonged energy shock would force interest rates to stay high and could tip already weak economies into trouble.

Outlook: A short-term ceasefire could calm oil prices for a 60-day window, but the nuclear dispute means the deal could fall apart fast.