Trump publicly leaned on his new Fed appointee Kevin Warsh to lower interest rates during his swearing-in, signaling tension ahead even though the relationship looks friendly now.

• Warsh barely got confirmed on party lines (13-11 in committee, 55-45 on the floor), showing the Fed is now a partisan fight.
• Trump told Warsh the stock market is up "because they like you" — code for "you better cut rates."
• Warsh is a supply-side guy who wants cheap capital for businesses, clashing with the Keynesians who currently run the Fed.
• The argument for cutting: today's high prices come from an oil supply shock, not real broad inflation, so rates should come down once oil normalizes.
• Wall Street disagrees and is now betting on a rate hike by end of 2026, setting up a direct fight with the White House.

Outlook: A rate cut is being pushed for late July, but if inflation data stays hot, Warsh may be forced to hike instead, souring his relationship with Trump fast.