A deal between the US and Iran to give up enriched uranium is close to being finalized, which is good for oil markets and global stability but bad for the Iranian people hoping for regime change.

• Iran has reportedly agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium in exchange for unfreezing $6–30 billion in cash, sanctions relief, and an open Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil prices are already falling on the news, with West Texas crude dropping to levels not seen since early March.
• The Iranian people are the biggest losers because the IRGC stays in power and will likely punish those who pushed for revolution.
• Israel and war hawks like Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Mark Levin are pushing back because they wanted regime change, not a deal.
• Trump appears to be choosing an America First approach: get the nukes out, avoid boots on the ground, and let the next administration deal with the rest.

Outlook: The deal is expected to be finalized before June 14, with oil prices falling further and attention shifting to upcoming US celebrations and the midterms.