CNBC confirms Elon Musk has been thinking about folding Tesla into SpaceX, which could be good for Tesla shareholders if it triggers a stock swap at a premium.

• Musk wants more control of Tesla, where he only owns 15%, versus SpaceX, where he holds 85% voting control.
• The likely path is a stock swap: Tesla shareholders would get SpaceX shares at a set ratio, killing the TSLA ticker.
• Tesla stock has stabilized in the mid-$400s as traders bet on this merger happening.
• SpaceX is expected to IPO around a $2 trillion valuation and could rally higher on hype, making the swap math more favorable.
• A direct SpaceX buyout of Tesla shares is unlikely because it would trigger investment company rules and disclosure problems.

Outlook: If SpaceX's IPO rallies on momentum, expect a formal merger proposal that goes to a Tesla shareholder vote, likely passing.