Iran-US talks in Qatar are moving slowly and could collapse, which is bad for global oil flows and good for hawks who want the war to continue.

• Iran's top negotiators are in Doha trying to lock in the release of frozen Iranian assets before signing anything.
• A US strike that killed four Iranian sailors in Iranian waters and fresh Israeli bombing in Lebanon are seen in Tehran as deliberate moves to wreck the deal.
• Trump softened his stance and now accepts that Iran's enriched uranium could stay in Iran, be diluted, or sent to Russia or China, but Iran says the nuclear file comes only after a 60-day trust period.
• Iran will keep control of the Strait of Hormuz, charging fees for passage and blocking ships tied to countries that helped attack it until Israel stops bombing Lebanon.
• Tehran rejects Trump's push for Gulf states to join the Abraham Accords, saying no Arab government can move closer to Israel during an ongoing genocide.
• Life in Iran is returning to normal with schools and internet reopening, but inflation is high because of strikes on factories, hospitals, and the port siege.

Outlook: A deal could be signed within days if Trump faces down the Israel lobby and Netanyahu stops bombing Lebanon, otherwise the strait stays closed to hostile shipping and the standoff drags on.