US strikes on Iran and Israeli escalation in Lebanon are pushing the ceasefire toward collapse, bad news for oil markets, the region, and anyone hoping for a quick end to the war.

• US forces struck Iranian boats and missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz, killing Iranian sailors, even as both sides claim a ceasefire is in place.
• Israel is escalating strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah with explicit US backing, and Trump has dropped his earlier demand that Israel stop bombing.
• Trump made one big concession: Iran can ship its enriched uranium to a third country like Russia instead of handing it to the US, similar to the old JCPOA deal.
• But Trump is now demanding Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan join the Abraham Accords and normalize ties with Israel, which shocked those leaders into silence on a call.
• No face-to-face talks have happened between US and Iranian officials since the initial Pakistan meeting, making a real deal unlikely.
• Gas prices are still high at around $4.50 a gallon, and oil is near $100 a barrel.

Outlook: The ceasefire looks fragile, and Iran may respond to continued Lebanon strikes by hitting the UAE, risking a return to full-blown war.