The Trump administration is suing Minnesota and other states to block bans on prediction markets, which is bad for state control over gambling and good for Kalshi, Polymarket, and Trump family business allies.

• Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets, making it a felony to host or advertise sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.
• The Trump administration sued Minnesota and several other states, arguing only the federal CFTC can regulate these as derivatives, not gambling.
• Don Jr. is tied to both Kalshi and Polymarket through 1789 Capital, and the CFTC has fast-tracked approvals for Trump-linked crypto and prediction market firms.
• Over 80% of bets on these platforms are sports gambling, and most retail traders lose money to sophisticated trading desks running sharp strategies.
• A poll found 64% of Gen Z and millennials see crypto, gambling, or retail stocks as the only realistic path to wealth, fueling demand for these platforms.

Outlook: The Trump administration is expected to win in court given the conservative Supreme Court, which would effectively legalize prediction market gambling nationwide and override state bans.