Bad news for anyone hoping for peace in the Middle East: the ceasefire is broken, both the US and Israel are bombing again, and oil and energy markets face more pressure.

• The US bombed Iranian boats and coastal sites just hours after Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for peace talks, calling it self-defense.
• Israel launched a massive bombing campaign in Lebanon, hitting 70 sites and killing hundreds, with Netanyahu saying Israel is at war with Hezbollah and will not stop.
• A peace deal that was reportedly 95% done fell apart right after Netanyahu called Trump, with new demands added that Iran and Arab states will reject.
• Israeli ministers have openly said they plan to keep southern Lebanon, where a $40 billion gas field sits off the coast, suggesting the goal is land, not defense.
• The whole region, including Iran, Lebanon, and the US public, wants the war to end; only Israel's government is pushing to keep fighting.

Outlook: More bombing and no quick peace deal, which means continued pressure on oil prices and energy markets in the coming weeks.