Russia is reportedly looking for a quick smash-and-grab invasion to reassert power as its Ukraine war stalls, with Armenia and Georgia named as the most likely targets — a serious threat to both small nations.

• Putin is desperate because Russia cannot make real progress in Ukraine, and his advisers are hiding the failure from him.
• Armenia is at risk because it has been pulling away from Russia toward the EU, and parliamentary elections on June 7 could trigger a Russian move if their influence campaign fails.
• An attack on Armenia is tricky since Russia has no land border with it, so Moscow would need to go through Georgia or rely on long-range strikes.
• Georgia is an even easier target because the ruling Georgian Dream party is pro-Russia and could simply invite Russian troops in to crush opposition protests.
• Russia's military is weak right now, but Armenia and Georgia have tiny armies, no modern air defenses, and no experience with drone warfare.

Outlook: Watch Armenia's June 7 vote — if Russia's influence effort there fails, a military move against Armenia or a staged intervention in Georgia becomes a real near-term risk.