Alberta is moving toward a vote on leaving Canada while Trump's endorsement streak is making him the most powerful kingmaker in years — bad news for establishment Republicans and for Canadian unity.

• Consumer confidence hit a record low as the Iran conflict pushes gas prices up and stokes inflation fears.
• Trump is now 118 for 118 on endorsements this cycle, including Ken Paxton beating long-time senator John Cornyn by 27 points in Texas despite being outspent nine to one.
• Alberta's premier set an October 19 vote on whether to pursue a referendum to separate from Canada, frustrated that the province's oil and tax money keeps getting sent to poorer liberal provinces like Quebec.
• Prime Minister Mark Carney called the separation push a "very dangerous bluff," pointing to Brexit voters who now regret leaving the EU.
• Actual separation is unlikely — support sits around 25 to 40% and the constitutional process is slow — but the anger reflects a deep split between western Canada and Ottawa, similar to red-state versus coastal divides in the US.

Outlook: Trump's picks will keep reshaping the Republican primary map heading into the midterms, and Alberta's vote will signal how serious the western revolt against Ottawa really is.