Russia is preparing what may be a final, devastating push to end the war in Ukraine, which is bad news for Kyiv and good news for Russians who want the war over.

• Russian forces are massing for ground operations targeting Odessa, Kharkov, and possibly Kyiv itself, with missile strikes expected to ramp up sharply.
• Putin has broad public backing at home, and Lavrov has told foreign diplomats to leave Kyiv ahead of "annihilating" strikes.
• Ukraine has little left to fight with — air defenses are depleted, troops are demoralized, and many soldiers retreat when pushed.
• Russia may also strike drone-component factories in Germany, Poland, and other European countries supplying Ukraine.
• Zelensky is begging for more US and European weapons, but Germany's AfD and other European voices want the war ended and Russian energy restored.

Outlook: A major Russian offensive on Odessa and Kyiv looks close, and if Odessa falls, Ukraine effectively ceases to function as an independent country.