The Iran ceasefire is holding but the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, which is bad for oil markets, consumers, and the global economy.

• Trump says no sanctions relief unless Iran gives up its enriched uranium, keeping a hard red line in place.
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard is threatening to turn the region into a "graveyard" if fighting restarts.
• Iran's president says the fight has shifted from missiles to economic war over oil and shipping.
• Draft frameworks suggest shipping routes may not reopen for 30 to 60 days, keeping fuel costs high.
• Prolonged high oil prices would push up food and other costs, risking a global slowdown worse than 2008.

Outlook: The ceasefire survives for now, but oil prices could spike again if talks break down or the strait stays choked off.