A US-Iran peace deal is taking shape, but Trump is now demanding Muslim countries sign the Abraham Accords as part of it, which could stall the whole thing.

• Initial deal terms leaked: US pulls back from Iran, lifts the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran restarts commercial shipping. Uranium was not mentioned.
• Trump is now insisting Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others sign the Abraham Accords recognizing Israel as part of the deal. Pakistan flat-out refused, and Turkey is seen as a non-starter.
• Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the most likely to come around, since the Saudis want Western business deals and Qatar is already cooperating by freezing Iranian assets.
• Fighting continues during talks: Israel killed 31 people in south Lebanon, and the US hit targets inside Iran while Iran shot down a US drone.
• Oil is swinging wildly on each headline, from $89 to over $108. Gas prices will not drop fast even if a deal happens, since it takes about 75 days for cheaper fuel to flow through the supply chain.

Outlook: If oil drops below $80 and stays there, the market believes the deal is real; for now the Abraham Accords demand looks like a stalling tactic.