Russia claims the US is moving ISIS fighters from Syria to Iraq to attack Iran, while a proposed peace deal looks dead on arrival — bad for any US-Iran agreement and bad for global stability.

• Russia's FSB says Western spy agencies plan to use former Syrian militants as a proxy force against Iran, similar to past US support for groups like MEK.
• The draft US-Iran peace deal demands Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, end military support in Lebanon, and accept slow phased sanctions relief — terms Iran is unlikely to accept.
• Trump just said the Strait of Hormuz will not be controlled by any country and sanctions relief is off the table, making a deal even less likely.
• Iran controls the Strait's coastline and will keep de facto control no matter what Trump says; Iran has also vowed to retaliate for recent attacks.
• Trump is draining the strategic petroleum reserve fast to keep oil below $110 a barrel, and the reserve could be empty by August.
• Inflation jumped from 3.2% to 3.8% in April and could hit 6%, while interest rates stay below inflation — raising rates to match would crash the financial system.
• US debt-to-GDP is 125%, and a global economic contraction worse than the Great Depression is possible if oil and supply chains break down.

Outlook: No deal with Iran is in sight, the war risk stays high, and the economic strain from the conflict will land on Trump's lap.