Iran is winning its war with the US and the fighting will likely drag on for months or years, bad news for regional stability and American troops in the Middle East.

• The war was supposed to last days but is now expected to grind on like Russia-Ukraine, with no peace deal in sight.
• Ending it would require pulling US troops back to late-2025 positions, which even a Democratic president would struggle to do.
• The US strikes have radicalized the Iranian regime, raising fears beyond just nuclear weapons and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Terrorism aimed at American targets is now a growing concern as a direct result of the conflict.

Outlook: Expect a long, open-ended war with rising terrorism risk and no clear off-ramp for either side.