The Iran war has gone badly for the US and Israel, and a possible US-Iran deal would be bad news for Israel, which is trying to wreck it.

• The US and Israel started the war by attacking Iran during good-faith talks, not the other way around.
• There is no public evidence Iran knew about October 7th, despite neocon claims.
• A deal would leave Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and with a brighter economic future, which Israel sees as a defeat.
• Israel is bombing Lebanon partly to blow up any ceasefire and force the war to restart.
• Gulf allies now see that US bases could not protect them and are rethinking their reliance on Washington.

Outlook: A ceasefire and deal are possible but Israel and US war hawks will keep trying to sabotage them, so the conflict could flare up again.