The Iran ceasefire is falling apart, which is bad news for oil markets, Iran talks, and anyone hoping the war stays cold.

• The US bombed an Iranian military site near the Strait of Hormuz again, saying it was responding to Iranian drones aimed at a US ship.
• Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait that was shot down, and the US says only Iran is violating the ceasefire, not itself.
• Trump threatened to "blow up" Oman if it does not fall in line, even though Oman is a US ally and the main go-between with Iran.
• Trump is also pressuring Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar to join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel, which their populations strongly oppose after Gaza.
• The talks are stuck because Trump keeps adding demands — full US control of the Strait and Iran giving up its nuclear program — that Iran will not accept.

Outlook: If Iran hits back hard, the war restarts and gas prices jump; if Iran swallows the strikes to get sanctions relief, a weak deal might still happen, but neocons and Israel are pushing Trump to keep bombing.