Trump's Iran standoff is dragging on with no deal in sight, and the squeeze is hitting US consumers hard on food and credit, while China prepares to crack open the memory chip market.

• Iran talks are stuck because Trump keeps adding demands like forcing Saudi Arabia and Qatar to recognize Israel, while Iran wants the US Navy to lift its blockade and let Iran control the Strait of Hormuz.
• If Iran gets its way, Gulf states could start pricing oil in Chinese yuan, which would badly damage the US dollar's role in the global oil trade.
• Wall Street is quietly betting on a crash — credit default swaps against big tech are up 500% since last year, with over $12 billion positioned for a market drop.
• China's memory chip maker CXMT is heading for a $5 billion IPO and selling chips at half the price of Samsung and Micron, which could pop the chip stock bubble fast.
• US grocery prices jumped sharply in April, farm bankruptcies are up 46%, and 61% of Americans say they are cutting back on food while 31% are skipping medical care.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on US consumers and rising odds of a rate hike by April 2027, with no quick fix to the Iran conflict or the food cost spiral.